Microsoft Live Search CashBack - prelaunch thoughts

Predictions are a fool's errand, especially when you haven't seen the thing whose future you're speculating on.

So here goes!

I can't resist an early comment on Microsoft's CashBack service, which will give rebates to people who find and buy products through the MSFT Live search engine. Here's a WSJ story on the service. It's supposed to launch at 1:30ET, which is a few minutes from now. (OK, now it's up.)

A lot of the focus will be on what it means for merchants. My concerns are with the user experience.

This concept just seems too complicated to get tens of thousands of people using it, which is the point where more than a few advertisers really take notice. (Which is the whole point.)

The user is supposed to register with Microsoft, and provide details on their Paypal or bank account. There will surely be multiple email confirmations and validations with security questions and images. Users have to take it on faith that they don't have to read the fine print, and there aren't loopholes for the rebates. All barriers to account setup.

For this to work, regular Google users are supposed to catch themselves before searching for a camera or a book, and think, "Hey, I should use the Microsoft search on the chance that I'll get $1.98 back at some point." Habits are hard to break, and $1.98 won't do it.

I'm not a Microsoft-hater. Live is fine, and the new build-your-own-Flash-game service Popfly looks neat. But their products are usually too complicated, and I bet that CashBack will fail for that reason.

If this prediction bites the dust (like most do), here's how I'll eat digital crow. I'll buy $100 of Live PPC ads on the keyword "cashback", leading to this blog post.